Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Forex Trading Insights, Breakthroughs and AHAS!

Since most of the trading world is clearly barking up the wrong tree and chasing their tails getting nowhere, it is evident that in order to consistently win we need to see the market in a different way from the rest of the herd. I remember the first Forex training course that I took charged me $1000 for the beginner’s section and another $1000 for the advanced section. In the beginner’s course I was taught to open up a one minute chart and divide it up into three sections and if the price was in the bottom section I should buy and if it was in the top section I should sell. It didn’t take me long to ask the question, “If the market is trending won’t it breakthrough all these lines and keep on going for days? I guess the instructors were not prepared for this question since this method was based on the totally false assumption that the market always channels on a 1 minute time frame. I often illustrate how this method is much like buying a car and then painting over all the windows and windshield. Then cutting a hole in the floorboard and attempting to drive by looking through that hole. The fact is you just can’t see where you are going by looking through that hole.

Later I learned other methods including using pivot points with trend lines, MACD and candlestick patterns. It didn’t take me long to figure out that if the price approached a pivot point one of two things could happen. It could hesitate or stop or it could keep on going. And soon I realized that looking at these lines was completely irrelevant to the natural forces that could reveal what the market was really doing. Basing a trading decision on a daily pivot soon became a useless concept to me.

I also noticed that all the managed Forex funds and automated Forex trading systems published results that were quite unimpressive. Sometimes they would win, then there were large draw downs and losses and it seemed as if even professionals were pretty much guessing and were totally at the mercy of the market’s unpredictability. Meanwhile I could see that there were clear signals and patterns in the markets that seemed to indicate that there is a way to easily get profits consistently. But others were somehow not seeing this. For instance one of the first things I realized is that most trading methods work well in a trending market and then they produce losses during a choppy, corrective or sideways market. So I immediately came to a revolutionary conclusion that no one else seemed to be noticing. Why not only trade in trending markets and avoid trading in choppy markets? What would that do to the results over the long term? Uhhh… It doesn’t take an Einstein or a rocket scientist to come to this conclusion does it?

In my quest for more Forex trading knowledge I went on to immerse myself in Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci. I delved into some of the mysteries of Gann. I saw many people doing many different things and I saw very few people consistently winning. In fact many seasoned professional traders seemed quite negative and pessimistic about the whole trading business. Meanwhile I was harvesting large profits consistently using a fairly simple method and wondering why people thought this is so difficult and why success seemed to elude most people.

Eventually a few acquaintances kept asking me about what I was doing which ultimately led to my authoring a training program that covers all of the insights, breakthroughs and “AHA”S that I have had over several years. The important message is that anyone can consistently get outstanding results in Forex trading with a little motivation and the right approach. Having experienced the challenge and the frustration of trying to learn to master the art of trading in a world where finding what works can be a lifetime pursuit, I now derive a lot of satisfaction in seeing others who have been through the struggle to learn Forex trading suddenly having amazing breakthroughs as they develop a lifetime skill that will continue to create financial freedom for themselves and their families.

Scott Shubert

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